目的：构建青光眼患者术后眼压变化的风险预测模型，并进行验证。

方法：选取2023年1月1日至2025年9月30日于安徽理工大学第一附属医院眼科进行手术治疗的480例青光眼患者为研究对象，依据患者术后1 mo的眼压值将其分为眼压良好组(288例)和眼压不良组(192例)。单因素分析所有患者的一般资料、术前眼压、术前眼轴长度、术前角膜厚度、白细胞介素-6(IL-6)、转化生长因子-β(TGF-β)及一氧化氮(NO)水平，对存在显著差异指标进行Logistic多因素分析，并建立列线图预测模型，采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线和校准曲线进行验证。

结果：眼压不良组患者的年龄68.07±12.57岁、男78例(40.6%)、高血压史131例(68.2%)、术前角膜厚度553.44±32.97 μm、IL-6为6.38±1.97 pg/mL、TGF-β为5.72±1.72 ng/mL、NO为76.46±8.04 μmol/L，均高于眼压良好组(均P<0.05)。Logistic回归分析结果显示，青光眼患者的年龄(OR=1.031，β=0.030)、高血压史(OR=2.089，β=0.737)、术前角膜厚度(OR=1.013，β=0.013)、IL-6(OR=1.362，β=0.309)、NO(OR=1.125，β=0.117)是影响术后眼压变化的危险因素(均P<0.05)。ROC曲线分析显示，青光眼患者术后眼压变化的AUC为0.785(95%CI：0.743-0.827)。预测曲线与标准曲线基本拟合，Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果显示， χ²=4.742，P=0.785。

结论：青光眼患者年龄、高血压史、术前角膜厚度、IL-6和NO水平是影响其术后眼压变化的危险因素，上述指标联合构建的列线图工具具有一定临床实用性。

METHODS: A total of 480 glaucoma patients who had surgery in the ophthalmology department of First Hospital of Anhui University of Science and Technology were selected between January 1, 2023, and September 30, 2025. They were divided into a good intraocular pressure group(288 cases)and a poor intraocular pressure group(192 cases)according to the intraocular pressure at 1 mo after surgery. Univariate analysis was conducted on the general information, preoperative intraocular pressure, preoperative axial length, preoperative corneal thickness, interleukin-6(IL-6), transforming growth factor-β(TGF-β), and nitric oxide(NO)levels of all patients. The factors with significant variation underwent Logistic multivariate analysis, a nomogram prediction model was constructed, and the calibration curve and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve were used for validation.

RESULTS: Patients in the poor intraocular pressure group aged 68.07±12.57 years, had 78 males(40.6%), 131 history of hypertension(68.2%), preoperative corneal thickness of 553.44±32.97 μm, IL-6 of 6.38±1.97 pg/mL, TGF-β of 5.72±1.72 ng/mL, and NO of 76.46±8.04 μmol/L, which were all better than the good intraocular pressure group(all P<0.05). The Logistic regression analysis indicated that the age of glaucoma patients(OR=1.031, β=0.030), history of hypertension(OR=2.089, β=0.737), preoperative corneal thickness(OR=1.013, β=0.013), and IL-6(OR=1.362, β=0.309)and NO(OR=1.125, β=0.117)were risk factors for the postoperative changes of intraocular pressure(all P<0.05). The ROC curve showed that the AUC of postoperative changes of intraocular pressure in glaucoma patients was 0.785(95% CI: 0.743-0.827). The prediction curve was basically fitted to the standard curve, as shown in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, χ²=4.742 and P=0.785.

CONCLUSION: The age of glaucoma patients, history of hypertension, preoperative corneal thickness, and levels of IL-6 and NO were risk factors affecting postoperative intraocular pressure, these factors were of clinical practicality when combined with constructed nomogram.