目的：探讨60岁以上老年人干眼的影响因素，构建老年人干眼风险列线图预测模型，为高风险老年人的识别和预防策略的制定提供参考。

方法：采用便利抽样法选取2023年7月至2023年12月广州医科大学附属第二医院眼科门诊就诊或住院的60岁以上老年人301例301眼作为研究对象，按照是否发生干眼分为干眼组173例173眼和非干眼组128例128眼。比较两组患者的资料并构建老年人干眼风险预测模型。

结果：性别、高血压、睑板腺功能障碍、经常使用眼药水、经常使用电子产品、经常处在干燥环境是影响60岁以上老年人干眼发生的因素(均P<0.05)。列线图预测模型表现出优秀区分度(AUC=0.86，95% CI： 0.81-0.90)，校准曲线和标准曲线拟合度良好，预测准确性较高，Hosmer-Lemeshow检验P=0.424，灵敏度为73%，特异度为86%。

结论：本研究构建的60岁以上老年人干眼风险列线图预测模型具有良好的区分度和校准度，可作为直观、有效的临床风险评估工具，为早期识别高危人群和个体化干预策略提供依据。

METHODS:A convenience sampling method was used to select 301 people aged over 60 years who attended the ophthalmology outpatient clinic or were hospitalized at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University between July 2023 and December 2023. They were divided into a dry eye group(n=173)and a non-dry eye group(n=128)based on the presence or absence of dry eye. Data from the two groups were compared and a risk prediction model was constructed.

RESULTS:Gender, hypertension, meibomian gland dysfunction, frequent use of eye drops, frequent use of electronic products, and frequent exposure to dry environments were significant influencing factors for the occurrence of dry eye in people aged over 60 years(all P<0.05). The nomogram prediction model demonstrated excellent discrimination(AUC=0.86, 95% CI: 0.81-0.90). The calibration curve showed good fit with the ideal curve, indicating high predictive accuracy. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P-value of 0.424. The sensitivity was 73% and the specificity was 86%.

CONCLUSION:The nomogram predictive model for the risk of dry eye in elderly people aged over 60 years constructed in this study showed good discrimination and calibration. It can serve as an intuitive and effective clinical risk assessment tool, providing a basis for the early identification of high-risk populations and the development of individualized intervention strategies.