[关键词]
[摘要]
在医学研究中，预测模型已被广泛用于预测疾病进展和提前确定高危人群，特别是在慢性疾病的预防和诊断方面。在眼科，年龄相关性黄斑变性、糖尿病视网膜病变等眼底疾病的预测及诊断模型已经证明了专家水平的准确性。但在近视防控领域，预测模型的应用还处在探索阶段，其建立有助于提前发现近视高危人群，以便及时采取足够的户外活动、减少近距离工作等预防措施，对预防或减缓近视发生发展进程具有重要意义。由于近视发生发展的机制尚未完全阐明，预测模型应用对象、预测因子及预测结局的选择尚存在挑战和限制。本文将就不同类型近视预测模型的研究和应用进展予以综述，以期为其进一步开发和完善提供参考。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
In medical research,predictive models have been widely used to predict disease progression and identify high-risk populations in advance, especially in the prevention and diagnosis of chronic diseases. In ophthalmology, the predictive and diagnostic models for fundus diseases such as age-related macular degeneration and diabetic retinopathy have demonstrated expert-level accuracy. However, the application of predictive models is still in the exploratory stage as for myopia prevention and control. The establishment of a predictive model is helpful to identify the high-risk myopic children in advance, so that preventive measures such as adequate outdoor activities and reducing near work can be taken in time, which is of great significance to prevent or slow down the occurrence and development of myopia. Because the mechanism of myopia has not been fully elucidated, there are still challenges and limitations in the selection of application objects, predictors and predictive outcomes. This paper reviews the research progress of different types of myopia predictive models in order to provide reference for further development and improvement.
[中图分类号]
[基金项目]
国家重点研发计划项目(No.2019YFC1710200); 山东省中西医结合专病防治项目(No.YXH2019ZXY001); 山东省医药卫生科技发展计划项目(No.202107020948)
